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- Convenor:
-
Geraldine Duthe
(INED)
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- Stream:
- Sociology
- Location:
- Chrystal McMillan, Seminar Room 6
- Sessions:
- Wednesday 12 June, -
Time zone: Europe/London
Short Abstract:
This panel will focus on contemporary demographic dynamics in Africa where transitions are unique at the global level, but also contrasted within the region and, at national levels, whithin sub-groups of the population.
Long Abstract:
From a demographic perspective, Africa will experience very high population growth in the next decades. The demographic transitions characterizing the African populations are unique at the global level, but also contrasted within the region. Populations living in Southern and Eastern Africa faced the dramatic mortality crisis due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the 1990s. Despite recent progress on this epidemic as well as on malaria, mortality rates due to infectious diseases remain relatively high, while non-communicable diseases have become responsible for a large share of premature mortality. In terms of reproduction, North African countries had experienced very rapid - but fragile - reduction in fertility while several West and Central African countries are still characterized by very high fertility levels.
This panel will focus on contemporary demographic dynamics (fertility and its proximate determinants, mortality and health) in Africa and their relation to a number of underlying factors: gender and generation relations, family structures, economic development, schooling, health care provision, urbanization, migration, and environment. Special attention will be paid to specific sub-groups of the population that contrast with national trends. These groups are specific from a socioeconomic, cultural or geographic perspective, and can be considered as forerunners - if they are advanced in the transition -, or on the contrary as groups who are "left behind". Studying these groups in varied countries will help understand the processes at play at the individual and contextual levels and help question existing public policies or the lack thereof.
Accepted papers:
Session 1 Wednesday 12 June, 2019, -Valentina Fusari (University of Torino)
Paper short abstract:
The paper provides an account of recent fertility trends in Eritrea, focusing on changes after independence (1991) and the factors underlying them. In this study, a more comprehensive analysis is made using both quantitative and qualitative data collected through literature review and fieldwork.
Paper long abstract:
The study of the fertility transition in Eritrea allows to question the availability and quality of demographic sources in Sub-Saharan Africa, and mainly in the Horn of Africa, where population dynamics are rather different. Moreover, it opens the discussion on the necessity and difficulty in carrying out fieldwork to fill knowledge gaps and collect original data otherwise unavailable on sensitive issues in peculiar geographical and political environments.
The paper focuses on the analysis of the fertility trend in post-independent Eritrea (1991-2018). It relies on available quantitative data, mainly the Demographic and Health Surveys (1995, 2002, 2010) and the Ministry of Health reports, together with a critical glimpse on the United Nations Population Revision 2017 and the Millennium Development Goals country reports. Since in the last decades different factors affected the direct and indirect determinants of fertility, data contextualization is fundamental to avoid oversimplifications and misinterpretations. Therefore, my effort consists of providing an emic interpretation based on in depth interviews about the Eritrean fertility transition. In detail, after a capsule presentation of the limits concerning sources and methods, I highlight the role played by the traditional practices (such as gender roles, female genital mutilations, and concubinage), the biopolitics implemented by the government, and the migratory culture, affect both population structure and dynamics.
Soumaila Ouedraogo (Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques)
Paper short abstract:
This study aims to highlight the adult mortality trends in sub-Saharan Africa under the prism of adult modal age at death, a key indicator of longevity which refers to the age at which deaths are more concentrated at adult ages.
Paper long abstract:
This study aims to highlight the adult mortality trends in sub-Saharan Africa under the prism of adult modal age at death, a key indicator of longevity which refers to the age at which deaths are more concentrated at adult ages.
In sub-Saharan African countries lack reliable vital statistics, but many censuses and national representative surveys that addressed maternal and children health have been carried out in most of these countries. In addition, other sub-population surveys were carried out in some of them. But these data sources were gathered by the United Nations Population Division and make them produce various mortality measures such as child (5q0) and adult mortality (45q15) for many years. On the other hand, many relational models have been developed to improve mortality estimation in countries lacking reliable vital registration systems. But the state of the art of these models remains indirect methods indexed by one or several mortality measures (1q0, 5q0, 45q15, e0). The most interesting of them remains the age-specific model that is HIV calibrated. This model is the more suited for many sub-Saharan African countries strongly affected by HIV, and make it possible to take into account the HIV effect on longevity.
Specifically, two main research questions underlay this paper. The first is to know the ages at which adult deaths are concentrated in 44 sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2015. The second question seeks to assess the effect of HIV on adult longevity.