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- Convenor:
-
Toon Dirkx
(University of Cambridge)
Send message to Convenor
- Stream:
- Politics and International Relations
- Location:
- Appleton Tower, Room M1
- Sessions:
- Wednesday 12 June, -
Time zone: Europe/London
Short Abstract:
Generally portrayed as struck by fragility, Africa exhibits much variation in state-making trajectories. Seeking to go beyond individual case studies, this panel seeks to distil those convergences and divergences underpinning state-making and state-breaking processes since independence.
Long Abstract:
Allegedly home to 30 out of a total of 49 fragile states in the world (OECD 2015), Africa has summarily been judged to be "undoubtedly plagued by systematic state failure" (Howard 2014). While it is true that the continent has seen many state structures evaporate in large-scale violent conflict, about half of all states in sub-Sahara Africa have neither experienced internal nor intrastate war between 1947 and 2015 (UCDP/PRIO 2015). Consequently, and given that the alleged structural causes of fragility—ranging from arbitrary colonial borders to widespread poverty and inequality—are widely shared among African countries and their respective societies, a major puzzle is how differences in state trajectories in Africa can be explained, and under what conditions it is state-making or state-breaking that prevails?
Seeking to address this conundrum, recent academic debates have centred on concepts such as 'hybrid political orders' (HPOs), and 'political settlements', amongst others. While these frameworks do shed important light on state trajectories in sub-Sahara Africa, it remains unclear what accounts for why some states flourish whilst others perish. Does the answer lie with the institutional set-up, the underlying political economy, or issues of social cohesion and (national) identity? What is the role of violent conflict and non-state (armed) actors in governance and state development? And what theories, concepts, and methods lend themselves to better understanding state trajectories across space and time? This panel invites paper presentations that are dedicated to shedding more light on these and related questions.
Accepted papers:
Session 1 Wednesday 12 June, 2019, -Al Dias (NOVA IPRI)
Paper short abstract:
The Horn of Africa is at the epicenter of global economic shifts with significant strategic and political implications. Against this background, the paper aims to contribute to understanding the region's security dynamics since 1998until the more recent rapprochement in 2018.
Paper long abstract:
The Horn of Africa is at the epicenter of global economic shifts with significant strategic and political implications. Against this background, the paper aims to contribute to understanding the region's security dynamics since the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea (1998-2000) until the more recent rapprochement in 2018 between Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrea's President Issaias Afewerki. This rapprochement had a direct impact for the borderland groups because it was followed by the opening of the border in September 2019, without restrictions initially for both Ethiopian and Eritrean citizens. Since December 2018 however Eritrea has introduced the requirement of a permit from the federal government to allow Ethiopians to cross the border.
This article draws on original empirical research among a partitioned group the Saho ( the most recent between 3-22 January 2019) on the Ethiopian side of the border, the ethnic group referred to as the Irob. The article will shed light on the strategies and shifting identities that a borderland group created in order to adapt to the changes around a previously porous border and the implications of the wider region's security dynamics for those groups commonly viewed as being at the periphery of sovereign states.
Toon Dirkx (University of Cambridge)
Paper short abstract:
This paper addresses variation in the political stability of post-insurgent statehood. It demonstrates how wartime institutional convergences and divergences by the EPLF in Eritrea and the SPLM/A in South Sudan have created variegated state-making trajectories.
Paper long abstract:
Throughout sub-Sahara Africa, insurgent movements have fought bloody civil wars against authoritarian regimes. In some cases, this resulted in internationally recognised secessionism (e.g. Eritrea and South Sudan) while in other instances it led to the overthrow of an incumbent regime (e.g. Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and the DRC). As subsequent rulers of the state, these 'victorious rebels' have displayed highly diverging capabilities to shape post-war political order. Some regimes consisting of former rebels show a quick relapse into civil war, whereas in other cases they dominate post-war politics for decades. The puzzle this paper addresses is how to account for this striking variation in the political stability of post-insurgent statehood.
The central argument this paper advances is that wartime convergences and divergences of rebel rule with pre-existing institutions and behavioural norms create variegated systems of governance that shape post-insurgent state trajectories. When rebel institutions in civil war converge with local pre-existing institutions and norms within and across territories under rebel control, post-insurgent statehood exhibits a unification of rules that facilitates political order. Conversely, when wartime institutions by rebels diverge from pre-existing institutions and norms, post-insurgent statehood reflects a fragmentation of rules, leading to political instability and a more likely relapse into civil war. Using multiple methods of research, including fieldwork in the Horn of Africa, the paper empirically demonstrates how the legacies of wartime institutional convergences and divergences by the EPLF in Eritrea and the SPLM/A in South Sudan have shaped the respective state-making trajectories.
Jonas Ewald (Linneaus University)
Paper short abstract:
The paper argue that the current democratic backsliding in Tanzania can be explained by a a combination of structural change and disruption of earlier elite coalitions in combination with the strong presidency of John Magufuli
Paper long abstract:
Tanzania is an interesting case of a peaceful development in a region where, almost, all neighbours has experienced protracted violent conflicts, built on a coalition of narrow elites led by CCM, the dominant party since independence. The underlying structural change of the Tanzanian society has created a more complex and diversified economy, rapid urbanization and expansion of secondary and tertiary education has created a more diversified class structure, an emerging middle class and new elites - and increased expectations. Political mobilization by the opposition led to that the ruling party won the elections in 2015 with the smallest margins since the multiparty system was introduced 1994. The democratization process has been challenged since the elections in 2015 of President Magufuli. The political space has narrowed down, in the name of creating a more effective transformation of Tanzania to an industrialised middle-income economy to 2025. Based on a political settlement approach the paper argues that the President Magufuli has built his power on a disruption of the old power network and created a partly new elite-network.
The paper is built on field works in the period 2016-April 2019.