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Short abstract

This research reinterprets systemic risk misperceptions and cognitive traps, as identified by the authors of "The Limits to Growth", in light of contemporary challenges to space sustainability, particularly the proliferation of space debris.

Long abstract

The sustainability challenges currently faced in outer space governance closely mirror those previously encountered on Earth, particularly in relation to climate change, resource overuse, and systemic risk misperception. Drawing on systems thinking developed by Dr. Donella Meadows in “Limits of Growth”, this paper examines how persistent misconceptions in human understanding of complex systems undermine resilience in space activities. These misconceptions, such as inappropriate framing, misjudgement of exponential growth, delayed responsibility, and over reliance on technological fixes, are analysed through the lens of space sustainability.

The analysis further highlights how uncertainty, feedback delays, and autonomous system behaviour, well-documented in Earth’s climate system, are equally present in orbital environments. The growing collision risks exemplifies how unaddressed systemic dynamics can propagate across sectors. Moreover, technological advances such as active debris removal illustrate the limits of technology-driven sustainability when social norms, values, and security concerns constrain their implementation.

By applying Meadows’ system archetypes, the paper identifies key governance traps in space sustainability, including the tragedy of the commons, resistance to external influence, and the pursuit of false goals. It argues that resilience can be strengthened by rebuilding feedback loops between actions and consequences, redefining collective goals, and prioritising unified governance frameworks over fragmented regimes. Ultimately, the paper contends that lessons from Earth’s sustainability failures and successes must inform space governance if outer space is to remain a resilient, equitable, and usable environment for future generations.