Paper short abstract:

The exploration of futures as ‘not-yet’ relations beyond plausibility radically challenges the current anticipatory knowledge production. Considering two NEST case studies, we will analyze the not-yet potentials of both the epistemic subject and the sociotechnical meanings involved in Open Science.

Paper long abstract:

Nowadays approaches to future studies through anticipatory heuristics mostly employ the concept of plausibility. While the pursuit of reasonability beyond narrow probabilities is liberatory enough to be transformative (Urueña, 2019), plausible futures show up as not being open enough towards a truly disruptive Open Science: they do not only promote openness as the ultimate goal, but rather also a closure that fits within a certain plausible framework. In order to increase openness, this contribution starts with a sharp distinction between plausible relations and not-yet relations (Poli, 2017): while plausibility demands a closure of implausible possible trends in order to make an effective anticipation within certain circumstances, not-yet-established relations involve open-ended connections and correlations ─whether these are (im)plausible, (im)probable or (im)possible─. Our main thesis is that the exploration of these types of relations radically challenges our current knowledge production and aims to expand our concept of openness in science, technology and innovation.

After a top-down development of this theoretical framework, we offer a bottom-up discussion through an exploration of two different ongoing NEST case studies: 1) an anticipatory governance experiment in nanomedicine, where it will be discussed how not-yet relations might co-produce sociotechnical knowledge and co-constitute epistemic subjects (Barrenechea & Ibarra, 2020); and 2) a hermeneutical analysis of future ‘love technologies’, which shows how common visions are still incapable of exhaustively representing the present; and asks for not-yet meanings (Grunwald, 2020). These cases highlight the need to open up uncertainty and challenge plausible/implausible futures.