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Short abstract:

This paper examines analogical case study (ACS) analysis as a method for anticipating the implications of emerging technologies and offering recommendations to minimize the harms while maximizing the benefits. It also reflects on the public and policy response to ACS as a form of knowledge.

Long abstract:

In this talk, I provide an overview of the analogical case study (ACS) approach—which is based on the idea that the way that societies have managed technologies in the past gives us important insights into how they might respond in the future. We use historical data across sectors to anticipate how an emerging technology might evolve. I show how we have developed the ACS approach through reports on facial recognition technology in primary schools, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, large language models/generative AI and now small modular nuclear reactors. All include recommendations for policymakers and technology developers, executive summaries, and supplemental materials to generate public attention. We have found that we were able to accurately predict many of the impacts of these technologies. I will also discuss how we tried to package and publicize our findings to maximize our impact on public and policy discourse, and reflect on how journalists, civil society groups, and policymakers have responded to our findings as an example of the politics of evidence in policymaking. While some have been puzzled by our “meta-analysis” and lack of quantitative data, most appreciate our clear and comprehensive analysis and recommendations. In the case of large language models in particular, where there was (and still is) very little analysis or evidence of its social impacts, we have successfully been able to shape the debate, including shaping research, advocacy, and policy agendas.

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Long abstract:

Promises for and predictions about more “sustainable” futures through the widespread adoption of new technologies are ubiquitous in technoscientific spaces, though often based on narrow technology-centered interests. Rarely are novel technologies carefully evaluated with attention to their social impacts, nor viewed as products of social factors, thus missing opportunities to avert or minimize potentially harmful consequences by early intervention through policy. This applies also to the case of advanced nuclear energy technology, encompassing a variety of new reactor designs such as small modular reactors and microreactors, which is the subject of the current Technology Assessment Project at the University of Michigan’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program. In this presentation, I will reflect on the experience of anticipating the social, (geo-)political, and economic impacts as well as the ethical and equity dimensions of advanced nuclear energy through the analogical case study method. I will discuss the value of technology assessment broadly, and the ACS methodology specifically, as applied to the case of advanced nuclear energy to policy and pedagogy. I will also share my reflections on the role of expertise in technology assessment, based on my personal experience as a nuclear subject-matter expert leading an interdisciplinary team in a qualitative methodology. Lastly, I will illustrate preliminary findings of the ACS approach and demonstrate how inquiry into a diversity and breadth of technological cases has enabled our research team to anticipate the impacts of advanced nuclear energy that go beyond techno-solutionist narratives and logics.

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Long abstract:

The central process of the ACS method is identifying and developing analogical, usually historical, cases that can tell us something about the technology under study. In this talk, I provide an introduction to our approach to case selection and development in the Technology Assessment Project, including the work of training and supervising students to do this unfamiliar kind of thinking and research. I will cover each stage of the iterative ACS process, which includes ideating and wide open brainstorming, reading and watching speculative fiction, researching and producing short presentations and write-ups of individual cases, and looking for patterns and trailheads to guide subsequent rounds of case development. Identifying these patterns is crucial to teach student researchers (and eventually, the readers of our reports) about the systematic ways that technology shapes, and is shaped by, society. As student research assistants do most of the case research and writing, I will also discuss how we help students apply STS ideas. Throughout all stages of the process, students learn to think and research flexibly and creatively, and we encourage them to express opinions and make arguments, even and especially if no one has made them before. Finally, I will reflect on the challenges, successes, opportunities, and portability of our approach.

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Short abstract:

This presentation will focus on three lessons that my participation in the Vaccine Hesitancy TAP Project during 2020 and 2021 has left in my training process as a PhD student learning STS and interested in the impacts of technologies in Public Policy in Latin America.

Long abstract:

One of the primary challenges in graduate school is training to become a researcher. Research assistantships provide ideal opportunities for learning through hands-on experience with real projects. In this presentation, I will reflect on how my participation in the TAP project on vaccine hesitancy has contributed to my development as an STS researcher, particularly in the context of aiming to contribute to accountable technological futures in the realm of policymaking. Specifically, I will discuss three lessons: Firstly, a methodological lesson about how this project introduced me to the Analogical Case Study (ACS). This methodological perspective allows the analysis of the impacts of technologies on societies and illustrates how these impacts are products of intricate social, political, and cultural dynamics. But, most importantly, this experience taught me how to analytically connect the past, with the present and the future of the impact of technologies in society. Secondly, I will discuss a lesson on interdisciplinarity, since the ACS methodology enables researchers from a variety of disciplinary backgrounds to exchange ideas and work collaboratively, capturing the complexities inherent in technological artifacts. Thirdly, I will share both a practical and analytical lesson on how STS can become a potent perspective not only for interpreting reality but also for contributing to technology-related policy decision-making processes.