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- Convenors:
-
Susanne Giesecke
(Austrian Institute of Technology)
Renata Mandzhieva (Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT))
Masafumi Nishi (AIT, Austrian Institute of Technology)
Dana Wasserbacher (Austrian Institute of Technology)
Alexandra Csabi (Austrian Institute of Technology)
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- Chairs:
-
Attila Havas
(AIT Austrian Institute of Technology)
Renata Mandzhieva (Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT))
- Discussants:
-
Masafumi Nishi
(AIT, Austrian Institute of Technology)
Michael Bernstein (AIT, Austrian Institute of Technology, GmbH)
Alexandra Csabi (Austrian Institute of Technology)
Wenzel Mehnert (Technische Universität Berlin)
- Format:
- Traditional Open Panel
Short Abstract:
The panel is dedicated to discuss how Foresight, Imagination and Innovation Studies can contribute to the social, ecological, economic and political transformation to reach the ambitions EU goals of a green, digital and just society, and similar goals on the global scale as the SDGs and the COP21.
Long Abstract:
Innovation theory has undergone some significant and vibrantly debated changes over the last 40 years. Starting with the analysis of national support for Reseach and Development and their contribution for national growth, it has moved on to concept of national innovation system and finally committed itself to the question how innovation system can foster socio-technical system change. We see a close link between innovation theory on the one hand and foresight and imagination for innovation and technology policy on the other hand. While the former focusses on analytical aspects, the latter focus on aspects of multiple futures. The sessions of this panel invite participants to study the interconnections between the analytical and the prospective sides in the context of the grand societal challenges as part of the current EU policies and activities.
The European Commission pursues ambitious goals with the green, digital and fair transition until 2050 together with the UN sustainable Development Goals and the COP 2021 targets. How can foresight, imagination and innovation studies contribute to societal, ecological, economic, and political transformation?
We propose two sessions of which one will be committed to theoretical aspects of the study complex. The second session will focus on methods and possible practice examples. Of special interest are approaches that embrace the active participation of civil society, stimulate the mutual exchange of ideas and perspectives, and the agency of citizens in foresight studies and innovation theory. Studies on how to define transformative targets, ways to pursue them and measurements of success would enrich the discussions.
Contributions are not limited to the EU or Europe. We are open for new ideas from other parts of the world.
We welcome scholars from the field of technology assessment, foresight, future studies, heterodox economics, social studies of technology, alternatives to capitalism, and other interdisciplinary approaches.
Accepted papers:
Session 1Attila Havas (AIT Austrian Institute of Technology) Matthias Weber (AIT Austrian Institute of Technology)
Long abstract:
Goal-oriented transformative change (GOTC) processes are defined as system-transforming processes, aimed at addressing current or expected future societal challenges. (Havas et al. 2023) GOTC can only start once a major overarching goal is identified by key stakeholders, and actors are committed to act. To support the design and implementation of this demanding strategy-setting process, there is a need for innovation systems thinking and foresight.
Innovation systems thinking offers relevant knowledge because we need a thorough understanding of the dynamics of change processes: what actors can develop and introduce business, social, and hybrid innovations; how these various types of innovations are diffused; how knowledge is created, utilised, and diffused in an innovation system and across innovation systems; how various other resources are produced and exchanged; how the interactions (especially co-operation and competition) among the actors are guided by institutions (“the rules of the game”); how institutions are crystallised and then change; how the new ‘nodes’ of an innovation system emerge; how the innovation policy governance sub-system works; how entire innovation systems evolve, get stabilised and then transformed.
The relevance of foresight stems from its three distinct properties. In a transparent and systematic way, it considers multiple possible futures. It is participatory, and thus creates “ownership”: once the participants arrive at a shared vision, they become committed to act to achieve that desired future. It is aimed at supporting decisions by policy-makers, business people, research managers, and other actors, not just contemplating about the future. Given these features, it can reduce uncertainties.
Limor Samimian-Darash (Hebrew University) Rotem Rittblat Michael Rabi (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
Long abstract:
In this paper, I examine global energy scenarios and the work around them and discern two distinct modalities of governing the future with scenarios and the ways in which they promote possible future transitions. I differentiate between modern and contemporary mobility by analyzing scenario experts' perceptions and methods. The modern modality of future scenarios consists of a normative perception, a quantitative methodology, and a fractured linear temporality. The contemporary modality of future scenarios consists of an explorative perception, a qualitative methodology, and a contemporaneous temporality. I argue that the former modality is driven by a concern with normative goals and achieving those through designing desirable paths and works to identify actions, decisions, processes, and developments that might impede or deviate from those goals and to formulate interventions so those are prevented or corrected. The latter, in contrast, concerns itself with the contemporaneous emergence of old and new drivers, trends, and factors and their remediation to explore plausible future pathways to reevaluate assumptions and actions that concern the mutually shaped present and future. The analysis of the development, design, and use of global energy scenarios mainly focuses on the scenario work of two global energy organizations: the World Energy Council (WEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Gül Beyza Kocamış (Middle East Technical University)
Long abstract:
This study explores the future trajectory of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) through a workshop conducted with engineering students who are conducting Futures Study Project. The workshop aimed to analyze one of the existing UN SDGs, considering its potential evolution in the future via Futures Wheel method applied on specific SDG chosen by students. To gather comprehensive data, qualitative analysis techniques were meticulously applied through a canvas study tailored to the workshop's objectives. The study employed Futures Wheel exercises to systematically assess the future of selected SDG’S implication to several factors thereby revealing both opportunities and threats inherent in the envisioned future paths of the chosen SDG. Additionally, questions were asked to workshop participants to gather their views on potential new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that may arise from emerging technologies. This holistic approach has resulted in a profound understanding of the potential future impacts of initiatives aimed at achieving one of the Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, engaging engineering students in this exercise not only expanded their comprehension of the intricate dynamics surrounding sustainability but also fostered critical thinking and proactive engagement with global challenges. In conclusion, this research significantly contributes to the ongoing discourse on sustainable development by presenting a structured methodology for exploring the future trajectories of UN SDGs. By integrating diverse perspectives and employing qualitative analysis techniques, it offers valuable insights into the potential evolution and impact of these goals.