Paper short abstract:

This paper presents research into the methods for analysing and monitoring international interaction toward crises/conflict management. The relevance of these methods will be illustrated using the case of the Israeli-Lebanon Conflict.

Paper long abstract:

Societies develop through integration and conflict: local, national and international communities, social/political institutions and networks as well as separate individuals are constantly balancing between a certain degree of cooperation and conflict being involved in the processes of social communication and interaction. The balance between cooperative - conflict tendencies is the main precondition for harmonious social development in which conflict acts as a healthy competition among actors. This paper represents a research into the methods for analyzing and monitoring international interaction toward crises/conflict prevention and peace-building, that though originated outside anthropology can be usefully employed within this discipline.

The increasing level of interaction supports the emergence and growth of social networks, accelerates the process of social dynamics and finally leads to the rise of integration. The decrease of intensity of interaction delays the process of integration that gradually overweighs the conflict tendencies above the peace ones. The destruction of cooperative links and institutional/legal frameworks of interaction is the main cause of dispute's transition from the civil discourse to the conflict one (which varies from the verbal aggression in the latent conflict phase to the escalation of violence in its active phase). The balance in the integration-disintegration continuum predefined by the intensity of interaction is the main focus of the paper.

The intensity of interaction can be analysed by means of the Discourse and Event Data Analysis. The Discourse Analysis is aimed at analysing the context and the content field of the interaction. The Automated Event Data analysis estimates the interaction quantitatively and together with Statistical Analysis evaluates the correlation between variables of conflict-cooperative behaviour.The combination of these methods allows estimating and predicting the dynamics of a dispute toward the peaceful settlement or conflict escalation scenario and in the latter case, to generate the tools of early warning and third party intervention. These methods can promote making anthropological understandings relevant to processes of conflict prevention/resolution and policy-making. The relevance of the methods for anthropology will be illustrated upon the background of anthropological approaches to the Israeli - Lebanon conflict.