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Paper short abstract

Since Abe 2.0, Japan has overhauled its security doctrine, force posture and China diplomacy to focus on cross-Strait deterrence. Yet, the implications of Japan’s policy changes on Taiwan are underappreciated. In fact, the Takaichi administration has simply made overt what was previously covert.

Paper long abstract

Assessments overlook the timeline and magnitude of Japan’s recent security and diplomatic moves in support of Taiwan. The literature tends to emphasize a consistent Japanese allergy to security support of Taiwan, emphasizing instead territorial defense and a coherent diplomatic stance, while a minority of views suggests Japan’s reactiveness to China’s expansive aspirations for national reunification. In fact, Tokyo has notably step-changed its security embrace of Taiwan and coupled that with new diplomatic rhetoric that suggests change over its earlier “One China” policy, also as leverage against Beijing. In this context, then, it is best to understand China’s remonstrations on Japan’s handling of Taiwan and its behavior as also reactive to initiatives taken elsewhere.

The seeds sown by the second Abe administration through the little-understood 2014-15 strategic and legislative revolutions bore fruit in Japan’s December 2022 three strategic documents, which are chiefly preoccupied with the geopolitics of the first island chain, including bolstering deterrence around Taiwan. The article concludes with implications about sustainability and credibility.

Tokyo’s quiet insistence that it does not have a “One China” policy signals to Beijing it has leeway for a “One China/One Taiwan” policy. Such understated diplomatic revolution would allow Tokyo to legitimize military intervention in a Taiwan contingency scenario, including the application of the right of collective self-defense to the self-governed island. At the same time, Japan’s dangling of Taiwanese statehood may be a lever to deter China– Japan’s de facto lawfare. Still, Japan and the U.S. should also prioritize assurances by buttressing dialogue and diplomacy with Beijing, including pledges that all interested parties abide by their One China policy, to avoid feeding into China’s assertiveness.

Finally, legal and strategic revolutions were passed with little understanding from the Japanese population, which retains a risk-averse antimilitarist ethos, prioritizes welfare over warfare, and is shrinking and greying, with implications also for the defense buildup’s fiscal sustainability.