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Paper short abstract

Amid heightened tensions with China following PM Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, the Japan–US alliance faces new strains. President Trump’s softer stance on China and unilateral actions, including on Venezuela, highlight growing gaps between US and Japanese priorities regionally and globally.

Paper long abstract

Under the Takaichi administration, Japan–China relations have reached a historic low. The trigger was Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks in the National Diet on November 7, 2025. Responding to former Foreign Minister Okada Katsuya of the Constitutional Democratic Party who asked the Prime Minister to provide a concrete example of a “survival-threatening situation,” in which the country could exercise its right to collective self-defense, Takaichi responded, “If it involves the use of battleships and military force, that would clearly constitute a survival-threatening situation.” The Chinese government, which defines the Taiwan issue as a “core interest,” reacted with strong indignation. Xue Jian, Consul-General in Osaka, posted on social media (later deleted), “I’ll cut off [your] filthy head.” The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has since intensified economic pressure, including calls for Chinese citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan.

The Takaichi administration was also caught off guard by US President Donald Trump's reluctance to criticize China. With midterm elections approaching, the suspension of agricultural exports to China has dealt a severe blow to American farmers. For Trump, the outcomes of the October 2025 US–China summit, such as a one-year suspension of China’s export restrictions on rare earths and the expansion of US agricultural exports to China, are political achievements he cannot afford to lose. Recently, Trump has even begun referring to the US and China as the “G2,” a term rarely used by past US presidents, as it could be interpreted as treating China more favorably than allies. Furthermore, on January 3, 2026, the United States launched a military operation in Venezuela, detaining President Maduro and transferring him to American territory, which has raised concerns about violations of international law.

This presentation examines how shifting international dynamics and Trump 2.0 are challenging the Japan–US alliance and Japan’s broader diplomatic posture.