Paper short abstract:

This paper will analyze the LDP's newest constitutional amendment proposals. It will examine 1) how they compare to previous proposals, especially recent wholesale amendment drafts, and trends in constitutional redesign, and 2) analyze the odds of PM Abe succeeding in realizing revision.

Paper long abstract:

In 2017, Prime Minister Abe Shinzō announced his newest proposals to amend the thus far unamended Constitution of Japan. The Constitution, drafted more than seven decades ago with considerable influence from the US Occupation authorities, and its revision has remained a key item on Abe's agenda and a major battleground in the ideological struggle for postwar Japanese political identity. Based on Abe's ideas, his party, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced four amendment proposals in 2018: These include adding the SDF to Article 9, state of emergency stipulations, new rules for Upper House election districts and financial support for needy students. This paper examines how these four proposals fit into the long history of amendment proposals in Japan and how they measure up to international trends in constitutional (re)design. The proposals are particularly noteworthy, because they represent a clear break from the LDP's own 2005 and 2012 amendment drafts. Pundits have explained these proposals as simply representing Abe's attempt at winning over the Clean Government Party (Kōmeitō) and the Japan Innovation Party (Nihon Ishin no Kai). The LDP will need the support of both parties (and members of the opposition) to secure the necessary two-thirds majorities in both houses of the National Diet. This explanation does not grasp the background and scope of the 2018 proposals, though: Adding a third paragraph to Article 9, for instance, has traditionally been a rarity among amendment proposals. The same is true for stipulations pertaining to free education. Taken together all four proposals represent a significant break from recent wholesale amendment drafts such as the LDP's own 2012 proposal. This paper will take a look at how these changes can be interpreted as well as the odds of Abe succeeding to amend the COJ within his remaining term in office.