Send message to Authors

Paper short abstract

By using a mixed methods approach, the paper assesses the effects of a graduation programme in Malawi on (income and multidimensional) poverty and resilience. Therefore, it contributes to generating evidence on the capacity of graduation programs to ensure a sustainable exit from poverty.

Paper long abstract

Inspired by the BRAC graduation model in Bangladesh, the Government of Malawi together with IFAD launched the Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) intervention within a broader programme, called FARMSE. The UPG targets the beneficiaries of the nation-wide cash transfer program and provides them with seeds capital and different types of training and coaching, with the aim of graduating them out of poverty. The UPG was implemented by five NGOs in six districts of Malawi, covering 20,800 beneficiaries.

Despite the proliferating evidence on the effectiveness of graduation-type interventions, only few have looked at these effects after the end of the project. It is also unclear whether a limited set of interventions (compared to the 4-5 components in the BRAC model) could be as effective as the comprehensive one. The study contributes to filling this gap, by analyzing the effects of the UPG in Malawi on poverty and households’ resilience to shocks.

It relies on primary data collected in two different years, 2021 and 2023. In each of the six districts, the two surveys covered a sample of programme beneficiaries and a control group. We also collected qualitative data to understand the specific selection criteria used by the NGOs and the mechanisms explaining the results of the quantitative analysis.

To assess programme effects, we use both fixed effects and difference-in-difference econometric strategy. The main dependent variables are: income poverty, multidimensional poverty, and indicators of resilience to climate-related shocks (drought and flood). Intermediate outputs include participation in savings groups, investment in productive activities, livelihood diversification.