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Paper short abstract:

Large-scale forest policy impact evaluations face challenges: time constraints, sensitive findings, and equity concerns. Drawing on case studies from Indonesia, this study explores actionable recommendations for timely, equitable, and politically aware approaches.

Paper long abstract:

Large-scale impact evaluations of forest policies are critical for assessing whether enacted interventions achieve their intended outcomes, such as reducing deforestation, promoting restoration, or alleviating poverty. Recent advancements in data quality, availability, and methodologies have enhanced these evaluations. However, significant challenges remain. First, time constraints pose a major hurdle. Policy evaluations require sufficient time for implementation and measurable effects to emerge, delaying the availability of reliable insights. Data sources like national surveys, censuses, or satellite imagery often take years to become available, and preparing them for analysis is time-intensive. Yet, the urgency of the climate crisis and global commitments (e.g., the 30x30 restoration target) pressure policymakers to demand rapid results. Second, the sensitivity of evaluation findings can create obstacles. Results—particularly negative ones, such as evidence of no impact, increased deforestation, or heightened marginalization—may face political or financial pushback due to implications for donors or stakeholders. Finally, justice-related concerns arise. Large-scale evaluations relying on secondary data often prioritize efficiency over equity, risking the marginalization of forest-proximate communities by reducing their lived experiences to mere "data points." This study delves into these challenges in detail, drawing on ongoing impact evaluation case studies in Indonesia. It also explores actionable recommendations to address these issues, emphasizing the need for timely, equitable, and politically aware approaches to forest policy evaluation. By doing so, it aims to contribute to more effective and just forest governance in the face of the polycrisis we face today.