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- Convenor:
-
Miguel Niño-Zarazúa
(UNU-WIDER)
- Chair:
-
Carla Canelas
(The American University of Paris and Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne)
- Stream:
- F: Governance, politics and social protection
- Location:
- E2
- Start time:
- 27 June, 2018 at
Time zone: Europe/London
- Session slots:
- 1
Short Abstract:
This panel welcomes country case contributions that examine the effects of cash transfers on intergenerational mobility, based on rigorous identification strategies. Second, it welcomes papers that focus on theoretical and methodological contributions in the area of intergenerational mobility.
Long Abstract:
Intergenerational mobility—in terms of income, occupation, education, life expectancy and other wellbeing dimensions—reflects how successful societies have been in building egalitarian public policies that provide young people with more equal opportunities to move beyond their social origins. This 'longitudinal' approach to equality is critical, particularly in developing country contexts where poverty and inequality remain high and persistent.
In the past two decades, cash transfer programmes have become one of the major antipoverty policy innovations in the developing world. The underlying assumption of these programmes is that by providing monetary incentives to poor households that underinvest in the human capital of their children, cash transfers can help break the intergenerational transmission of poverty. While today a growing literature highlights the short-term, and more recently, medium-term effects of cash transfer programmes, evidence of intergenerational mobility effects remains scant and under researched.
However, better and longer longitudinal data from developing countries, as well as recent methodological developments in pseudo-panel analysis have improved the prospects of expanding the scholarly work and knowledge base on this subject.
This panel aims to contribute to the literature in two ways: First, it welcomes country case studies that examine the effects of cash transfers on intergenerational mobility and their mechanisms, based on rigorous identification strategies. Second, it welcomes papers that focus on theoretical and methodological contributions in the area of intergenerational mobility.
Accepted papers:
Session 1Carla Canelas (The American University of Paris and Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne) Miguel Niño-Zarazúa (UNU-WIDER)
Paper short abstract:
This paper examines the impact of Bono Juancito Pinto (BJP) on schooling and child labour. Results indicate that BJP increased the likelihood of school enrolment but has no sizeable effect on the incidence of child labour.
Paper long abstract:
In this paper, we investigate the schooling and labour market impacts of Bolivia's Bono Juancito Pinto (BJP). Different from other cash transfer programmes in Latin America, BJP does not follow a strict poverty targeting mechanism, but instead, is nearly universal in its coverage, as it covers
90 per cent of school-age children that are enrolled in public schools.
The programme began in 2006, providing income support of 200 Bolivianos per year (about $25 USD) to children enrolled in grade 1 to 5 of primary school. In subsequent years the government gradually expanded its coverage to include children in secondary education, raising the number of beneficiaries from nearly 1.1 million of school-age children in 2006 to 2,1 million in 2014.
Using data from the Bolivian National Living Standards Survey, we exploit the exogenous variation in the timing of the announcement of the programme expansion, as well as the age eligibility criteria, for identification. More specifically, we resort to difference- in-differences estimators to measure the effect of the programme on schooling and the incidence and intensity of child labour. Overall, we find evidence of a positive and significant effect of BJP on schooling decisions, although the effect is largely driven by children living in rural areas, particularly girls. However, We found no evidence of sizeable programme effects on labour market outcomes, which we attribute, at least partly, to the small size of the transfer, and the structure of the labour market and the school system in Bolivia.
Caroline Schimanski (UNU-WIDER) Miguel Niño-Zarazúa (UNU-WIDER)
Paper short abstract:
This study investigates the intergenerational effects of Mexico's Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera program on educational achievements, labour market outcomes and fertility decisions.
Paper long abstract:
While conditional cash transfers (CCTs) in developing countries have been implemented to break the inter-generational cycles of poverty, evidence has been largely restricted to the short, medium and recently also longer-term impacts on the recipients. However, there is a very limited knowledge base with regard to how exposure to CCTs affects the intergenerational social mobility of beneficiaries when comparing recipients' parent's characteristics. This study aims to contribute to the literature by examining the intergenerational effects of Mexico's Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera program (POP) on educational achievements, labour market outcomes and fertility decisions.
We use panel data from the Mexican Family Life Surveys (MXFLS), covering the period 2002-2009/12. The MXFLS are nationally representative surveys, tracking individuals migrating nationally and internationally, and also collecting retrospective information on parents' labour market outcomes. This allows us to mitigate selection bias from non-random attrition through migration or graduating from the program by escaping poverty and disentangle the cumulative impact of POP across generations.
We exploit the exogenous variation in the expansion of POP, as well as its targeting criteria, to implement in a quasi-experimental framework, difference-in-difference estimators and a regression discontinuity design for the identification of the causal effects of POP.
Edmund Breckin (University of Bradford)
Paper short abstract:
The experiences of recipients of CCT programmes are rarely accounted for in evaluations of the programmes. This paper will undertake a qualitative analysis of accounts of recipients of Mexico's Prospera programme, and whether they feel it has impacted on intergenerational mobility of recipients.
Paper long abstract:
Conditional Cash Transfer programmes (CCTs) were lauded as a 'magic bullet' for development upon their introduction and quickly spread to over 80 countries. Now over two decades since their initial introduction, little is known about their effects upon intergenerational mobility; this is despite the fact that initial criticisms of the programmes claimed that their objective of tackling long-term intergenerational poverty failed to address the immediate short-term issues. The Mexican CCT Prospera, rolled out in 1997, had a strong focus on investing in the human capital of children enrolled in the programme which addressed the prioritised long-term objectives of impacting intergenerational mobility. Despite the long-term goals of the programme, and the fact that Prospera was designed from its inception to have measurable outcomes, there is a lack of evidence examining its long-term intergenerational effects.
A number of studies have demonstrated positive impacts of Prospera; however evidence is lacking to demonstrate that these impacts have translated into better mobility. Research has begun to suggest that the long-term impact on intergenerational mobility is positive but there is a need to expand this research. This paper will examine and seek to contextualise the absence of a qualitative evaluation of intergenerational mobility. The limited qualitative research which has been conducted into CCTs has highlighted how recipients' understanding of the programmes differs greatly to that of policy makers. Analysing the experience of Prospera's beneficiaries would provide an insight into how the programme is performing in terms of intergenerational mobility from a usually unaccounted for viewpoint.