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Abstract

Abstract. The purpose of this paper was to comprehensively examine the diplomatic and geopolitical aspects of US policy towards Central Asia, particularly, in Kazakhstan, in order to identify the key factors determining the effectiveness of US strategy. The study applied the historical method, structural-functional analysis, and a systematic approach to assess US geopolitical interests in the region. The empirical foundation of the study drew on a range of reliable sources, reflecting both the official US foreign policy strategy and the regional realities of interaction with Central Asia. The results of the study revealed three key phases in US policy towards Central Asia. The study found that the effectiveness of the US strategy varies depending on the specific area: the US has been most successful in the energy sector. It is revealed that the C5+1 format has become a key tool for strengthening the US influence in the region. It was found that Central Asian states’ multi-vector foreign policy is aimed at maintaining a balance between the interests of the United States, Russia and China. The analysis demonstrates that the US has to balance geopolitical interests and the promotion of democratic values, adapting its policy to changing regional dynamics.

Keywords: regional security, energy cooperation, nuclear disarmament, anti-terrorist cooperation.

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The former Soviet republics share a common imperial legacy and remain entangled with Russia through trade, energy, and political alliances. Yet the extent to which this entanglement affects foreign direct investment (FDI) from third countries has received little empirical attention. This paper examines whether trade with Russia influences FDI inflows into thirteen post-Soviet economies from 1992 to 2023, using panel data and instrumental-variable methods to account for endogeneity.

The results reveal a clear asymmetry: dependence on Russian imports significantly deters FDI. A one-percent increase in per capita imports from Russia reduces FDI (as a share of GDP) by approximately 1.15 percentage points in the short run, with effects concentrated in non-European countries (Central Asia and the Caucasus). This finding suggests that import reliance signals to international investors a structural vulnerability—an exposure to a dominant supplier whose economic and political leverage creates uncertainty about future policy stability, supply-chain resilience, and institutional autonomy. In contrast, exports to Russia show no significant aggregate effect, but regional disaggregation uncovers striking heterogeneity: exports from European post-Soviet states (the Baltics, Moldova) harm FDI, while exports from non-European states attract it. The former likely reflects investor perceptions of political alignment with Russia; the latter probably captures Russian outward investment into dependable partner economies.

These results underscore that Russia is not an ordinary trade partner in the post-Soviet space; it embodies geopolitical weight that shapes investment climates. The paper contributes to debates on regional integration, dependency theory, and the political economy of FDI in transition economies. It also speaks directly to the conference theme of “Power” by demonstrating how asymmetric economic ties translate into perceived risk for global capital. For policymakers, the findings highlight the importance of diversifying trade partners and strengthening institutional safeguards to mitigate geopolitical risk and enhance investment attractiveness.

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The re-emergence of Central Eurasia as a strategically important geopolitical area under the new conditions of great power competition and changing world power structure can be observed. Being at the crossroads between Europe and Asia, the region has become a growing concern for the strategic interests of major players such as Russia, China, the United States, and the European Union. Kazakhstan stands at the heart of this changing geopolitical landscape due to its central geographic location, significant mineral and energy reserves, and aggressive international relations. The purpose of this paper is to analyse how Kazakhstan’s foreign policy has changed in response to the dynamics of the geopolitical landscape and how it is coping with the challenges posed by the great powers’ rivalry in Central Eurasia. In the multifaceted approach to diplomacy, Kazakhstan has sought to avoid over-reliance on any particular actor and to occupy a middle ground between various geopolitical spheres in Eurasia.

The regional strategic environment has been changing rapidly due to recent geopolitical developments. The effects of the Russian-Ukrainian War have brought emerging economic and security issues to Central Asian states, forcing Kazakhstan to re-evaluate its foreign policy orientation. Though its historical and economic relationship with Russia is close, Kazakhstan has also increased its interactions with partners in the West and its economic cooperation with China, especially in energy, trade, and infrastructure connectivity. The developments underscore the growing significance of Central Eurasia as a transcontinental trade route and a strategic power.

It is against this background that the foreign policy of the Kazakhstan state is becoming more reminiscent of a balanced, hedged approach between conflicting powers. Kazakhstan aims to increase its strategic independence by supporting dialogue, economic diversification, and regional connectivity programs, while stabilising the situation across the region. This paper argues that the middle power strategy, as evident in Kazakhstan, demonstrates the role of middle powers in negotiations with the great powers and in creating regional order.

Finally, the study views Central Eurasia not as a peripheral geopolitical region but as a space of increasingly contested strategic politics in world politics. The foreign policy of Kazakhstan illustrates how regional players are shaping the dynamics of changing power relations, thereby contributing to the emergence of new trends in collaboration, competition, and rule in Eurasia.

Keywords: Central Eurasia, Kazakhstan, Great Power Competition, Multi-Vector Foreign Policy, Regional Geopolitics, Strategic Balancing, Multipolarity, Eurasian Connectivity.

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How do states construct and negotiate identity, role, and status under conditions of strategic asymmetry? This article examines how Russia articulates its identity, role, and international status vis-à-vis China in the Russian Far East (RFE) following the launch of the Special Military Operation (SVO) in February 2022. Treating the RFE as a critical regional arena where domestic and foreign policy intersect, the study analyzes how Russian political elites discursively manage cooperation with China while asserting sovereignty, regional authority, and great-power recognition. The analysis is grounded in constructivist International Relations theory, which conceptualizes identity, role, and status as co-constitutive and performatively enacted through discourse. Empirically, the article employs a computational–constructivist framework that integrates large language models (LLMs), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and density-based semantic clustering to analyze a corpus of 499 official statements, speeches, and social media posts produced by senior Russian political actors between 2022 and 2025. Rather than treating computational tools as theory-neutral, the study explicitly aligns them with constructivist epistemology, using them to operationalize interpretive concepts at scale while preserving contextual grounding and theoretical coherence.

The findings reveal a highly consistent elite discourse in which Russia presents itself simultaneously as a cooperative and reliable partner to China, a sovereign and independent regional power, and a stabilizing actor in Northeast Asia. Cooperation in infrastructure, energy, and regional development is foregrounded, yet framed as a strategy for managing asymmetry rather than accepting subordination. Russia’s status claims oscillate between assertions of equality and implicit recognition of China’s growing economic and demographic weight, producing a relationship best characterized as managed interdependence. Historical memory and civilizational narratives are repeatedly mobilized to legitimize cooperation and mitigate status anxiety, stabilizing an otherwise indeterminate hierarchy. The article contributes to constructivist scholarship by demonstrating how identity, role, and status can be empirically operationalized through computational discourse analysis without sacrificing interpretive depth. Methodologically, it advances debates on text-as-data in International Relations by showing how generative AI can enhance, rather than replace, theoretically grounded qualitative analysis. Substantively, it offers new insights into how great powers reproduce global identities through localized regional discourse under conditions of geopolitical constraint.