Abstract

This paper examines how uncertainty is deployed as a deliberate tactic of governmentality within the emigration regimes of Kazakhstan and Türkiye. While conventional policy analysis often views legal ambiguity and administrative inconsistency as 'failures,' this study argues that both states strategically utilize uncertainty to manage 'desired' versus 'undesirable' overseas citizens. In both countries, emigration governance includes a wide range of policies, from setting conditions for exit to sending students abroad via state-sponsored programs, and from engaging with citizens abroad - for instance, through extraterritorial voting- to the facilitation of return and reintegration. These policies are constructed through domestic priorities, bilateral affairs and agreements, and international legal frameworks, all of which are shaped by geopolitical and security concerns, economic opportunities, and the international political climate.

The theoretical approach and empirical foundation of this research are drawn from the Emigrant Policy Regimes (EMIGPOL) Project. Launched in 2022, the project comprehensively examines the policies of 21 countries - selected from the top 25 globally with the highest number of emigrants according to UN DESA Population Statistics- to analyze how home states manage their citizens abroad, regulate mobility, and promote return. The project embraces a multi-tier approach, establishing a dialogue between national policies, bilateral agreements, and multilateral cooperation frameworks on one hand, and exit, emigrant engagement, and return policies on the other.

This paper demonstrates that both states navigate the tensions between national security and transnational identity politics, suggesting that uncertainty is not a lack of governance but a sophisticated instrument of power. By maintaining a landscape of unpredictable and/ or silent regulations, Kazakhstan and Türkiye exercise 'sovereign caprice' to filter 'desired' emigrants according to shifting political, economic, and demographic needs. Ultimately, this study contributes to Central Eurasian studies by highlighting how emigration governance serves as a site where state power is reasserted through the management of human mobility and the strategic manufacturing of desirability.