Abstract

This research examines the industrial policy pathways of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, focusing on post-independence de‑industrialisation of the 1990s and re‑industrialisation efforts since the 2000s. While existing literature has extensively covered the economic transformation of former planned economies, the unique pattern of industrialisation–de‑industrialisation–re‑industrialisation in these Central Asian nations remains understudied. Using a mixed‑methods approach combining policy document analysis, economic indicators, and the index of revealed comparative advantage, this study investigates how industrial policies have shaped the economic structure of both countries over three decades.

Preliminary findings suggest divergent outcomes driven by differences in resource endowment. Kazakhstan’s oil‑driven economy enabled more ambitious industrial policies; however, its export complexity has shown limited improvement. Kyrgyzstan, with fewer natural resources, pursued lighter industrialisation focused on textiles, food processing, and re‑exports, achieving modest gains in economic complexity despite significant resource constraints.

The study contributes to the development economics literature by demonstrating how resource endowments, institutional capacity, and policy choices interact to shape industrial development trajectories in these economies.