Abstract

The war in Ukraine has triggered large-scale migration flows. While refugee emigration from Ukraine has, for obvious reasons, received substantial attention, a less discussed issue is the shift in international migration patterns among other post-socialist countries. This paper provides a descriptive overview of these changes, examining their dynamics and potential consequences.

First, Russia has experienced a significant wave of outmigration, with hundreds of thousands leaving due to political repression, mobilisation, and deteriorating economic conditions. Some observers describe this as the largest wave of emigration and brain drain since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Owing to visa-free regimes, geographical and cultural proximity, the widespread use of the Russian language, and relatively low living costs, most emigrants have relocated to post-Soviet countries. As a result, several of these countries have seen improvements in their traditionally negative migration balances. However, the migration literature suggests that the effects extend well beyond a simple—potentially temporary—positive inflow, influencing host economies through labour markets, aggregate demand, fiscal outcomes, entrepreneurship, and innovation. A particularly visible example, widely reported in the media, is the housing market: given relatively inelastic supply in the short to medium run, migration inflows can exert substantial upward pressure on prices, which in many cases have remained elevated despite signs of partial out-migration.

At the same time, migration inflows to Russia have also changed. Russia has traditionally been a major labour market and a key source of remittances for migrants from post-Soviet countries, especially from Central Asia. However, worsening economic conditions, mobilisation risks, and both formal and informal tightening of migration policies have likely reduced the attractiveness and accessibility of this market. As a result, migrant workers are increasingly seeking alternative destinations, while in some cases remaining in their home countries, potentially increasing pressure on local labour markets. These shifts in both the volume and composition of labour migration may also have implications for the Russian labour market itself.