Abstract

In the present study, the focus is on the evolution of trade and energy relations between India and Central Eurasia from 1990 to 2025. Central Eurasia includes the countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which have abundant natural resources like oil and gas. India is also a country with a highly growing consumer economy. The aim of the present study is to highlight the evolution of trade and energy relations between the two regions over the last three and a half decades and to understand the impact of the changing market situation, geopolitical situations, and the policy decisions of the regions on the bilateral trade relations between the two countries. The demand for energy imports by India and the supply of natural resources like oil and gas from Central Eurasia create a situation of interdependence between the two regions, which is always prone to the effects of sanctions, fluctuations in prices, and the use of alternative sources of energy like solar and wind power.

In terms of methodology, the study utilizes secondary data sources such as UN Comtrade, the World Bank, and the International Energy Agency, among others. These sources provide yearly time-series data, which is then analysed using econometric techniques including cointegration, VAR, and Granger causality analysis. This approach assists in differentiating between long- and short-term movements of the variables, thereby providing a more nuanced approach to understanding the relationship between India's GDP growth and its import of energy from Central Eurasia, as well as the response of the Central Eurasian economies.

The study contributes to the larger field of regional economics by injecting the spatial and geopolitical aspects of trade and energy into the analysis of trade between regions. The study recognizes the sluggish export growth of manufactured products by India to Central Eurasia while at the same time observing the rising trend of its import of hydrocarbons. The study also recognizes the vulnerability of the Central Eurasian economies to external shocks. From the perspective of the “spaces, societies, and power,” the study offers empirical evidence that encourages a new perspective regarding the economic relationships between India and Central Eurasia. Ultimately, it seeks to contribute to policy discourse regarding energy security, diversification of trade, as well as regional cooperation in a rapidly changing world.