Abstract

This paper analyzes the strategic role of Central Asia in the European Union’s energy diversification strategy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As the EU seeks to reduce dependence on Russian energy, Central Eurasia gained attention as a potential source and transit space for oil, gas, and renewable energy creating both opportunities and constraints for regional and global actors.

The study addresses two central questions: to what extent can Central Asia realistically contribute to Europe’s energy diversification, and how do geopolitical and structural factors shape this potential? The paper argues that while Central Asia is increasingly positioned as a strategic energy partner, its capacity to replace big suppliers is limited. The region functions as a “pivot space” where competing interests of the EU, the United States, Russia, and China intersect, producing complex interdependencies.

A key insight is that EU diversification has not eliminated dependency but reconfigured it. Reliance on Liquefied Natural Gas imports from the United States introduces market-based asymmetries, price volatility, and logistical challenges, highlighting the limits of European energy sovereignty.

Methodologically, the paper combines analysis of EU and regional policy documents with case studies of major projects such as the Trans-Caspian corridor, Kazakhstan’s hydrocarbon exports, and Uzbekistan’s gas initiatives. The analysis identifies three core limitations: infrastructure jam, great power competition, and fragmented regional governance. It also highlights how Central Asian states leverage these dynamics to pursue multi-vector policies and strengthen strategic autonomy.

By connecting energy flows, geopolitical competition, and regional agency, this paper provides a structured framework for understanding Central Asia’s evolving role in Europe’s energy strategy and contributes to broader debates on dependency, regional power, and strategic rebalancing in Eurasia.