Abstract

This paper examines whether Türkiye’s activism within the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) may unintentionally weaken, rather than deepen, political cohesion among its Central Asian members. It asks under what conditions Turkish leadership within the OTS generates cooperation, and under what conditions it instead produces hedging and shallow institutionalization.

I argue that Türkiye’s OTS strategy contains an internal contradiction. While Ankara seeks to transform cultural affinity into geopolitical influence, the more assertively it promotes identity-driven and politically sensitive initiatives, the greater the likelihood that member states will respond cautiously rather than align more closely. In multilateral institutions, cohesion depends not only on shared identity, but also on perceived equality, low political costs, and voluntary buy-in. When an organization appears to advance the priorities of one dominant actor, cooperation often remains symbolic rather than substantive.

The paper focuses on several dynamics that illustrate this tension: efforts to promote a common Turkic alphabet, attempts to elevate the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus through OTS platforms, leadership practices that may be perceived as hierarchical, and strategic assumptions that treat Central Asia as more geopolitically open than it actually is. These initiatives increase sovereignty costs for Central Asian states whose foreign policies remain shaped by multi-vector diplomacy, sensitivity to recognition issues, and structural constraints imposed by Russia, China, and other external partners.

Methodologically, the paper draws on discourse analysis of official declarations, policy statements, and public positions taken by OTS member states and relevant outside actors. Its central claim is not that the OTS is fragile or doomed, but that its future depth depends on whether functional cooperation can be separated from contested identity and recognition agendas. The paper thus contributes to broader debates on power, hierarchy, and regional order in Central Eurasia.