Abstract

Central Eurasia is one unique world region that has been a subject of scholarly inquiry and theoretical debate. Key geopolitical concepts such as heartland and rimland theories have evolved with reference to the region. At the same time, Barry Buzan's regional security complex theory (RSCT) may also serve as a framework to analyze and define the nature of this dynamic region. The region's uniqueness largely lies in temporal alteration between patterns of competition and cooperation within the same geographical space. This variation offers an anomaly to the mainstream 'realist perspectives on great-power engagement in the region' that otherwise dominate the discourse.

While the key geostrategic interests that each of the big players (USA, EU, Russia and China) seek in the broader region are well-known, this research argues that the struggle for spheres of influence here is different from other world regions. Compared to the common pattern where 'one outlasting the competition claims greatest influence' - in Central Eurasia, the Great power that outperforms the others in the domain of collaboration and regional development will have the largest sphere of influence. This implies that the struggle for long-term influence must go beyond transactional and sector-focused dealings with the Central Eurasian states.

By virtue of proximity and connectedness, the Central Eurasian geographic space has gradually become identifiable as a Regional Security Complex where members have developed an understanding of their shared interests in order to balance the strategic ingress by major/great powers. Thus, alignment with region's long-term survival and sustenance will be a key determining variable in how the spheres of influence may be demarcated.

This qualitative study will build upon an analysis of how two sides (the major powers and the regional states) have behaved, responded and dealt with each other regarding key issues that bring long-term well-being into question, such as: intra-regional conflict, energy security, infrastructure development, and water scarcity/stress in Central Asia.