Abstract

This study examines the growth of Kazakhstan's inbound tourism during the 2022–2025 period, during which the country experienced a 293% increase in foreign visitors accommodated in registered facilities. Through analysis of official statistical data from Kazakhstan's Bureau of National Statistics (24341 surveyed visitors in 2025, 22839 in 2024, 22441 in 2023 and 11397 in 2022,with panel data across 30 source countries), this paper identifies three primary drivers of growth: post-pandemic recovery effects, strategic visa liberalization policies targeting India and China, the Russian mobilization, and substantial expansion of air connectivity. A panel regression with structural break analysis is used to determine the relative contributions of these factors. The results reveal "waves" of growth corresponding to specific policy interventions and external events, with India demonstrating a 5262% increase and China an 883% increase over the period. A multi-factor expenditure model (R² = 0.71) demonstrates that tourist spending is determined by country of origin, length of stay, purpose of visit and accommodation type. The study contributes to tourism economics literature by demonstrating how multiple exogenous and policy-driven factors can interact to transform a nation's tourism landscape.