Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of public rhetoric by Russian political figures toward the states of Central Asia from 2014 to 2026. Based on a chronological case-study analysis of online statements by federal government officials, members of the Russian State Duma, state-affiliated media influencers and experts, it traces a gradual shift from historical revisionism to the articulation of an interventionist discourse.

The findings indicate that between 2014 to 2020, dominant narratives questioned the subjectivity and legitimacy of the state borders of Central Asian countries. These narratives were grounded in claims about «gifted territories», «artificial statehood», and the conditional nature of national identity. Starting in 2021, and particularly amid the war in Ukraine, the rhetoric acquired a harsher tone. References to the «protection of Russians», parallels with the Ukrainian scenario, and explicit suggestions of potential border revision became more frequent. By 2025-2026, public statements emerged that articulated the idea of a possible military operation in Central Asia and openly questioned the autonomy of the region`s foreign policy choices.

The paper this interprets this trajectory through the lens of theories of revisionist state behavior and discursive escalation. It demonstrates that the repetition of such narratives, their institutional articulation, and their amplification through media channels contribute to the construction of a stable interpretive framework in which the region portrayed as a space of «conditional sovereignty», potentially susceptible to external pressure.

The paper also reviews the reactions of Central Asia states, which include diplomatic protests, entry bans, and the public declaration of individuals as persona non grata. These measures are interpreted as symbolic and political tools for boundary-setting in the context of asymmetric regional relations.

Thus, the paper demonstrates a consistent transformation of rhetoric frame, moving from historic revisionism to an interventionist discourse. This approach contributes to a broader understanding of how Russian discursive practice shape political space and security perceptions in Central Asia.