Abstract

Central Asia’s role as a site of geopolitical importance and foreign influence is not new, but the form that influence takes has shifted significantly in the past decade. For youth, foreign engagement is no longer a distant geopolitical abstraction; it appears in everyday life through education programs, cultural exchanges, migration networks, and social media. As today’s youth represent future decisionmakers and voters, they undergo a critical period of political identity and belief formation. Yet despite Central Asia’s strategic importance and youth’s unique position as recipients of soft power initiatives, there is limited quantitative research examining how young people are willing to engage with initiatives carried out by actors such as China, Russia, and the United States.

This study examines how different mechanisms of U.S. soft power—particularly direct interpersonal contact and media exposure—shape Afghan and Tajik youths’ perceptions, trust, and intended engagement with the United States and international organizations. Using original pilot survey data collected from Afghan and Tajik youth residing in Tajikistan, the study quantitatively maps relationships among perceptions, trust, and both immediate and future intended actions.

Findings indicate that trust has a stronger and more statistically significant correlation with future action (r = .615, p = .004) than perception alone (r = .510, p = .021). Perception and trust are not significantly correlated (r = .376, p = .103), suggesting that favorable attitudes do not necessarily translate into institutional confidence. Direct interpersonal contact demonstrates a stronger association with trust and with higher-commitment behavioral intentions than media exposure, which is more closely linked to familiarity and affective responses. These findings suggest the presence of a “Familiarity–Action Gap,” in which positive perceptions do not consistently translate into active engagement.

By providing rare quantitative data on Afghan and Tajik youth residing in Tajikistan, this study contributes to Central Eurasian scholarship by shifting analysis from elite geopolitical strategy to youth-level political socialization.