Abstract

Observing public sentiment is one of the critical instruments for public officials and decision-makers in determining the acceptability of governmental initiatives and directions of the policy agenda. Traditionally, different mechanisms for measuring public opinion have evolved alongside democratic regimes. With the growing dominance of digital technologies, platforms such as social media now play an important role in supporting democratic discourse, shaping political identities, and expressing public concerns.

However, in countries of limited liberal traditions or politically constrained environments like Kazakhstan, civic discourse is generally redirected to digital platforms, and in the absence of accessible and safe mechanisms of political participation, these online spaces emerged as primary settings for public discourse, political expression and civic engagement. The “double shock” of 2022, involving large-scale anti-government protests named "Bloody January", and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, triggered a series of complex political, social and economic changes in Kazakhstan that significantly shaped public sentiment. Although Kazakhstan’s official neutral stance on the war can be understood from the standpoint of international diplomacy, security priorities, and economic interests, the sentiments of its population regarding the socioeconomic transformations brought by the conflict have been given far less attention. While economic indicators may suggest progress, the broader and widespread impact, particularly how citizens react and experience these changes, is often overlooked in political discourse and official narratives. Public perceptions are clouded by contradictory narratives, and the full extent and nature of these consequences remain unclear. The public discourse over the spillover effects of the war emphasises the need to consider public sentiment more seriously to gain a more accurate picture of the true nature of socio-economic transformations. This includes understanding how these effects are perceived in a society marked by a long and complex political relationship with Russia.

Therefore, the paper examines the concept of infrapolitics in Kazakhstan, the subtle, everyday and hidden forms of political engagement by netizens within Kazakhstan’s digital space. By bringing to light this often overlooked sphere of political life that exists beneath formal institutions, the paper explores citizens’ sentiments about the socio-economic consequences of the war in Kazakhstan by using a novel multidisciplinary methodology that integrates political science and data mining. The approach also offers a transferable framework for understanding political expression in other conflict-affected hybrid regions, where conventional forms of participation are often limited or suppressed.