Abstract:

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine set in motion unprecedented processes in societies with a history of Russian rule. In Qazaqstan, the brazenly imperial character of Russia’s aggression fueled the rise of previously marginalized decolonial perspectives critical of the USSR and modern-day Russia. Previous analysis of public opinion data demonstrated that ethnic Qazaqs are far more supportive of Ukraine and critical of Russia’s aggression than their ethnic Russian compatriots. However, it is important to delve deeper into the factors associated with perspectives on the war

among ethnic Qazaqs, especially given Qazaqstan’s dramatic demographic transformation since independence.

Importantly, ethnic Qazaqs are far from homogenous. One of the most consequential divides has to do with language. Since independence, Qazaq language, once relegated to rural areas and certain regions of the country (e.g., West Qazaqstan), has made a comeback. Following the abolition of the Soviet-era residential restrictions, massive numbers of Qazaq-speakers migrated from rural to urban areas in search of educational and economic opportunities. The city of Almaty, currently at 2.2 million residents, is by far the largest destination of such migration. As a result, Qazaq language, once largely absent from the former capital, can now be heard in public spaces throughout the city. Nonetheless, there remains a sizable community of Russified urban Qazaqs for whom Russian serves as the first language. Among members of this group, knowledge of Qazaq can range from fluent to non-existent. The division between Qazaq- and Russian-speakers among ethnic Qazaqs is often fraught because thoroughly Russified Qazaqs usually come from more privileged urban backgrounds.

Another important demographic factor to be taken into account is age cohort membership. The population of Qazaqstan is young, with about half of the country’s inhabitants under the age of30. Members of this group were born after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and grew up in independent Qazaqstan. Naturally, their socialization differed markedly from those who came of age during the Soviet era. How, if at all, this has translated into distinct attitudes toward Russia and Ukraine is something we need to learn more about.

I use data from 40 in-depth, face-to-face interviews conducted in Almaty in the summer of 2023 to shed light on the role of age and language in perceptions of war among ethnic Qazaqs.