Abstract:

The Ferghana Valley boasts fertile, well-watered terrain surrounded by high mountains located on major trade routes, making it one of the most densely populated areas not only in Central Asia but in the world. As an easily defensible agrarian base surrounded by nomadic populations, it seems an ideal location for Central Asian state formation. And yet it did not become a major political center until the rise of Khoqand in the late 18th century. This begs the question of why Khoqand arose so late and why no similar state arose in the region between the 15th and early 18th centuries, when Ferghana was ruled by Timurid and Uzbek states headquartered in the Zarafshan river valley. Of course, good historians must avoid counterfactuals when examining the causes of past events. But neither should they accept the past as incontrovertible: one must consider alternative possibilities to demonstrate the contingency of historical phenomena.

This study analyzes the causes for the emergence of the Khoqand Khanate and asks whether they were also present in prior centuries. While this study does not rely on primary source research, it critically re-examines the secondary literature and its use of primary sources to draw new conclusions. I find that all the causes for Khoqand’s rise were also present in earlier periods. Extensive irrigation networks producing agrarian surplus, trade relations with Altishahr and China, and powerful nomadic military coalitions were present in the Ferghana Valley for centuries before the rise of Khoqand. As a result, none of these can adequately explain the creation of a state where none existed before. Local elites in Ferghana could also draw on multiple sources of both dynastic and theocratic authority to separate from power centers in Bukhara and Samarqand. While this study does not offer a conclusive explanation for the late rise of Khoqand, it offers several possibilities. Moreover, it highlights our incomplete understanding of Central Eurasian state formation and offers new directions for research on Central Asian political history.