Abstract:

The aim of this study is twofold. First, it examines the relationship between the number of regular military personnel and fertility rates, focusing on 15 post-Soviet countries. We draw implications for peacetime demographic trends following the Ukraine-Russia war. We apply panel econometric techniques to a sample of post-Soviet economies over three decades (1992-2022) to disentangle the causal relationship between regular military personnel and fertility rates. Our approach addresses endogeneity concerns and sheds light on the potential mechanisms underlying this complex interaction. Our estimates, using a variety of panel data techniques, show a negative correlation between the number of regular military personnel and the fertility rate. Second, we examine the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia to assess its impact on fertility rates in Russia. This analysis shows that full-scale war is likely to have significant negative long-term demographic consequences for Russia.