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Abstract:

The quarantine measures that were applied almost everywhere in connection with the spread of COVID-19, and then the transition of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine to a military phase in February 2022 and related events (the imposition of large-scale sanctions against Russia and mobilization activities in Russia) had a serious impact on migration flows in the Eurasian migration system. The paper analyzes statistical data to determine the extent to which the changes were systemic for Kazakhstan and whether they led to a transformation of Kazakhstan's position in the Eurasian migration system. The paper demonstrates that the transformations impacted at least three components of migration processes that are significant for Kazakhstan, as identified in the Concept of Migration Policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2023-2027. These components include the balance of external migration, migration of skilled workers and educational migration, and Kazakhs moving to Kazakhstan. The quarantine measures that were applied almost everywhere in connection with the spread of COVID-19, and then the transition of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine to a military phase in February 2022 and related events (the imposition of large-scale sanctions against Russia and mobilization activities in Russia) had a serious impact on migration flows in the Eurasian migration system. The paper analyzes statistical data to determine the extent to which the changes were systemic for Kazakhstan and whether they led to a transformation of Kazakhstan's position in the Eurasian migration system. The paper demonstrates that the transformations impacted at least three components of migration processes that are significant for Kazakhstan, as identified in the Concept of Migration Policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2023-2027. These components include the balance of external migration, migration of skilled workers and educational migration, and Kazakhs moving to Kazakhstan. First, there is a serious change in the volume of migration related to change of permanent residence. In 2023, for the first time since 2012, Kazakhstan recorded a positive balance of such migration. At the same time, although Russia remains the most attractive country for migration from Kazakhstan, migration flows in this direction have significantly decreased. Moreover, the parity between the number of immigrants and emigrants was reached in 2023. Secondly, there are contradictory dynamics in the field of migration in connection with brain drain. On the one hand, there is an increase in the number of immigrants with tertiary and specialized secondary education and a surplus of such migration in 2023. On the other hand, from the academic year 2019-2020 we can speak about the decrease in the interest of foreign citizens to study in Kazakhstan. If the first vector can be explained by the inflow of migrants from Russia to Kazakhstan, the second vector requires additional analysis. Third, in 2022 and 2023, an increase in the migration of representatives of at least two ethnic groups - Kazakhs and Russians - is recorded, with the number of Russians entering Kazakhstan for permanent residence reaching the highest level since 2014. However, the paper argues that it is still premature to draw conclusions about the fundamental transformation of Kazakhstan’s place in the Eurasian migration system.