Abstract:

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine put Kazakhstan in a very difficult situation. On one hand, it had to show allegiance to its strategic neighbor by showing diplomatic support; on the other, it risks facing Western sanctions for helping Russia evade anti-Russian sanctions. One area where Kazakhstan and its Central Asian neighbors could benefit from the war is increased collaboration with the West in the spheres of renewable energy, trade and logistics. What is the effect of abovementioned risks and opportunities for Kazakhstan’s democratization record?

Has the Ukrainian war made Kazakhstan more or less democratic? Will the rejuvenation of relations with the West translate into political openings at home? As this paper will illustrate, the Ukrainian conflict has not caused any positive effect on democratization. On the contrary, it consolidated public opinion around the leadership of President Tokayev contributing to his regime legitimation efforts after a violent suppression of January protests. Moreover, Tokayev’s numerous meetings with global leaders reinforced his popular legitimacy at home. In addition, growing ties with the West around energy, logistics and trade deals eased Western pressure on Kazakhstan’s poor human rights record. Finally, contrary to most commentators’ views, Russia continues to yield political influence in Kazakhstan domestic affairs via its regional organizations and hybrid warfare tactics.