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Abstract:

This study examines the role of public irrigation infrastructure in mitigating climate-induced conflicts in Afghanistan, with a focus on individual engagement with armed groups. Through the analysis of Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) data from 2017 to 2021, as well as Afghan Household Surveys from 2014 and 2017, this study emphasizes the differentiated effectiveness of various irrigation systems in addressing water-related conflicts. Large-scale, externally aided irrigation projects, such as river dams and canals, may be inadequate in dissuading individuals from participating in armed conflict. In contrast, locally driven, community-based irrigation practices, exemplified by kariz systems, demonstrate promise in alleviating climate-related stressors and reducing the intensity of conflicts

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The current article is intended to bring two contributions to the study of informality. Empirically, it shares the result of the shadow economy survey for the 2017 and 2018 fiscal years for Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Ukraine. These results are used to calculate the shadow economy index estimated as a percentage of the GDP. Already established as an annual exercise for Latvia and the Baltics since 2010, the survey has been applied to Moldova and Romania (since 2016), Poland (2015-2016), and Kosovo (in 2018). In the frame of the project “SHADOW: An Exploration of the Nature of Informal Economies and Shadow Practices in the Former USSR Region,” the scope of the survey was expanded to Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Ukraine, keeping the same methodology and used for direct measurement of underground activities. By doing this, we discuss the use of direct measurement approaches to suggest that, while quantitative approaches are useful to estimate the size of shadow economies, direct approaches can be used to integrate these data and look for deeper correlations between the persistence of shadow transactions and some societal tendencies that are not necessarily economic. We also propose a distinction between shadow economies and informality in general. While a shadow economy is usually understood to arise as a consequence of underreporting of income, we argue that informality is best understood as the aggregate of non-monetary and non-economic practices used in society. Applying this distinction to our case, we suggest that the origins of Kyrgyzstan's shadow economy are not only economic; rather social and cultural processes have had significant effects. This has implications for policy responses that address shadow economic activities.

This presentation results from two recently published papers with a shadow economy team listed here

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02634937.2022.2093328

https://www.studiapolitica.eu/Archive/2023/studia-politica-romanian-political-science-review-vol-xxiii-no-1-2023

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Abstract:

Following the military conflict in Eurasia, compounded by Western sanctions against Russia, and notably triggered by a significant policy announcement by the Russian government in late September 2022, a massive exodus of Russian immigrants to neighboring Kazakhstan occurred as they sought to avoid conscription. This exogenous migration shock provides unique natural experimental conditions for examining the impact of immigration on Kazakhstan’s labor market. While existing literature shows mixed results on the effects of immigration on local employment, this study offers new insights by investigating the 2022 Russian immigrants’ impact on informal employment among Kazakhstan’s native workforce through a quasi-experimental research design. We hypothesize that regions experiencing a surge in immigration (the treatment group) will witness a reduction in informal employment among local workers, in contrast to regions with fewer immigrants (the control group). Using individual-level monthly data from the Household Employment Survey of Kazakhstan, which is not publicly available, and applying the Difference-in-Differences method, this paper reveals a modest yet statistically significant decrease in the rate of informal employment among locals in the treatment area. Specifically, according to the baseline model, the inflow of immigrants led to a decrease in the proportion of informally employed local individuals by about 0.7 percentage points in the treatment region compared to the control region. This finding remains robust after controlling for demographic characteristics and including time fixed effects, further supported by placebo tests. Our results partially align with previous empirical studies, which focused on the influence of refugees on natives’ informal employment and found a similar negative effect but of a larger magnitude. This research contributes to a broader understanding of immigration’s impact on labor outcomes, enriching scholarly debates and policy considerations in Central Asian contexts.