Paper long abstract:

Will China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) promoted by Russia - two ambitious integration projects - help boost regional integration in Central Asia? The region has been for many years characterized as largely disintegrated. It is thus a puzzling research question whether these two grand external initiatives will unlock region's potential for integration or whether highly disintegrated Central Asia will become a stumbling block for their successful implementation. The paper addresses these research questions from the perspective of Central Asian countries. It analyses the present state of Central Asia-China and Central Asia-Russia relations in light of China's BRI and Russia's Eurasian Economic Union projects. The paper also discusses a potential merge of the EAEU with China's BRI where Central Asia would be at the core of the process. China seeks to obtain access to the Eurasian common market for further economic expansion and the promotion of BRI. Its involvement through the Silk Road project may prove a game changer not only for Central Asia but also for the EAEU. The main conclusion is that for Beijing promoting regional integration and joining efforts with the EAEU are not the ultimate goal per se, but rather a pragmatic opportunity to achieve its more ambitious objective of boosting trade with Western Europe. The paper draws on secondary data as well as primary sources in the form of 38 interviews carried out with experts in Central Asia in 2017-2018. The experts assess the prospects for China's regional expansion and the development of the EAEU. Their perceptions and views will be systematically analyzed and presented in the paper.