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Kadozi Edward (PhD), Rwanda Development Board; kadoziedward@gmail.com

Ggombe Kasim Munyegera (PhD), Mazima Research Consultancy; kasimgm@gmail.com

Kabano Ignace (PhD), African Centre of Excellence, University of Rwanda; kabanoignace@gmail.com

The international migration of skilled migrants remains an ever-growing reality. This is accompanied by the existing heated debate about the development impact of skilled migrants (brain gain) in their countries of origin. This paper examines the development impact of skilled migrants in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period from 1980 to 2019, using a selection of 38 countries from the region. Specifically, the study measures the effect of skilled emigration rate (ratio of the number of highly skilled emigrants from a particular SSA country to an OECD destination to the total labor force of the country of origin) and remittances on real GDP per capita in the migrants' countries of origin. The study further explores whether the development impact of skilled migrants is mediated by the institutional factors in SSA countries. The analytical framework of this study is embedded in the three dominant theoretical and empirical approaches about migration and its outcomes; the new economics of migration (NELM), the endogenous growth approach, and incentive effect. The study uses Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) as the baseline model, complemented by Fixed Effects models to account for country-specific time-invariant characteristics (country heterogeneity). Further analysis will be conducted to address endogeneity issues using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and/or Two-stage least Squares (2SLS) methods. The main findings reveal that three theoretical approaches complementary in explaining the development impact of brain gain. The FE results reveal that, while overall emigration (including low-skilled and medium-skilled migrants) does not positively impact real GDP per capital, disaggregated analysis shows a positive and statistically significant impact of highly-skilled migrants in the region. Preliminary results further reveal that the effect of skilled migration and remittances is mediated by institutional factors - particularly regulatory quality - in the countries of origin. The findings suggest that the quality of the institutional framework and skill level are significantly imperative for enhancing the development impact of skilled emigrants in the region.

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