Paper short abstract:

This paper looks at the very long trajectory of human development and considers whether the assessments of positive or negative outcomes are suitable are useful categories, of whether they merely different moments in a continuous evolution of events.

Paper long abstract:

In an old Chinese parable, an old man's horse runs away, then returns bringing more horses, then the man's son breaks his leg trying to ride one of the new horses, then war breaks out and the broken leg allows him to escape recruitment into the army and probable death. Every time the story appears to have a good ending a new twist brings misfortune, and vice versa. The experience that assessments of events can change when the time frame is modified forms part of human life, on the everyday as well as on the grand historical scale. Some examples are notorious: the Aral Sea provided irrigation water for food and cotton production until it dried out, leaving communities destitute. While obvious in hindsight, the change in water level stretched over decades, obscured by the slow pace of change. In his recent book "War", Ian Morris argues that warfare, while brutal and the sources of immense suffering, is beneficial since it tends to create large empires that, in turn, creates more peaceful lives for its subjects. Similarly, the shift towards agriculture and sedentary societies has provided millions of people with food and allowed the creation of cities, science and arts. But it has also brought social inequality, violence and disease. This paper looks at the very long trajectory of human development and considers whether the assessments of positive or negative outcomes are suitable are useful categories, of whether they merely different moments in a continuous evolution of events.