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Paper short abstract:

This study compares pre- and post-coup polarization in Mali and Burkina Faso. Using Afrobarometer data, it studies societal divisions in government performance perceptions and examines to what extent media consumption, identity, and material inequality drive polarization in both periods.

Paper long abstract:

The recent coups in Mali and Burkina Faso abruptly ended the two countries’ democratization periods, reinstating military rule. Surprisingly, both events were marked by demonstrations in favor of the military takeover, hinting at significant public support, possibly mobilized by misinformation campaigns on social media. Utilizing pre- and post-coup Afrobarometer survey data, this paper delves into the reasons for this support and assesses the coups’ impact on political polarization. The analysis begins by highlighting societal divisions based on perceptions of government performance. This involves identifying respondents with conspicuously positive or negative performance evaluations to quantify the degree of polarization before and after the coup. Following this, I use regression analysis to contrast different theoretical explanations for the gap between pro- and anti-government communities. Specifically, I test the impact of media consumption (including social media), identity, and material inequality to identify the sources of polarization and shifts in political alignments following the coups. The design promises valuable insights into how coups affect social cohesion and the role of social media in rallying support for emerging authoritarian regimes.