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Paper short abstract:

We explore the revival of military regimes in Africa, based on the failures of the democratisation process that began in 1990. We also question the failure of international military intervention in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel and its link with the resurgence of military coups.

Paper long abstract:

Our presentation at the VAD 2024 international conference aims to provide an in-depth analysis of recent political developments in French-speaking Africa, particularly the resurgence of military regimes through coups d'état in countries such as Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger and Gabon. The presentation aims to provide analytical keys to understanding the resurgence of coups d'état between 2022 and 2023 in these African countries.

Firstly, the rigorous examination of the failure of the post-democratic transition electoral systems of the 1990s will be central to the analysis. Despite the regular holding of elections, the absence of a fair and inclusive political order persists, raising questions about the effectiveness of these electoral systems. The presentation will seek to identify the structural deficiencies of electoral systems in Francophone Africa in the face of the chimerical promise of democratic prosperity that was hoped for with the wave of political transitions in the 1990s.

Secondly, the presentation will analyze the failure of international military intervention in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The humiliation felt by military officers in the face of these mixed results played a significant role in their inclination to regain political control through coups d'état. The presentation will analyze in detail the security challenges that have led to the persistence of terrorism in the Sahel and the political stakes of military and humanitarian interventions between international actors, local security forces, and terrorist groups, thus offering a nuanced key to understanding the advent of military regimes in the face of the persistence of the terrorist threat.

Thirdly, the presentation will look at a comparative analysis between the growing phenomenon of military regimes and the 'colonial regimes' that prevailed in the 1970s and 1980s, highlighting historical parallels with previous decades. Through a comparative analysis, the presentation will question the underlying similarities of this 'return' to military regimes and assess the potential risks for regional stability. Documentary data and analytical models will help to shed light on these comparative aspects of contemporary African politics and the lessons to be learned from them.