Paper short abstract:

Using data from a phone survey pilot project in Niger and Gabon, we answer 3 questions: How do people evaluate the populist claims of current military rulers? What are their expectations in terms of return to civil rule? How do the countries differ in the scope and direction of political change?

Paper long abstract:

Africa’s new wave of coup needs to be situated in a changing international environment and an internal legitimacy crisis. The latest round of the Afrobarometer Survey shows that an increasing number of Africans is ready to tolerate military rule if civil leaders abuse their power. Pictures of crowds cheering military leaders in Niger, Mali, or Gabon seem to confirm this. We have, however, very little data on how populations really perceive the military coups, what they expect from them, and what strategies of legitimation military rulers employ themselves. What is apparent is that the initial narratives justifying military interventions differ. While the three Sahelian countries build on anti-French populism, rulers in Guinea or Gabon focus on internal politics.

This paper presents findings from a pilot project financed by the SCRIPTS Cluster of Excellence at FU Berlin. Using data from a phone survey conducted in Niger and Gabon, we give first insights into public opinion on some interrelated questions: Did disappointment with previous governments influence the perception of military coups? How do people evaluate the populist claims of the current military rulers? What are their expectations in terms of governance and transition to civil rule? How do these countries differ in the scope and direction of political change?