Paper short abstract:

Scholars have been concerned about the causes of recent military interventions in West African States. This paper contributes to this body of work by exploring how a leader's popularity in the rural areas of a country can be an effective tool to prevent military takeovers.

Paper long abstract:

Military interventions persist in Africa. While many studies on coup risk typically explore military organization or associated structural conditions, my approach takes a unique perspective. Traditionally, regimes seek to maintain power by appeasing urban consumers. Contrary to this, I argue that this focus on urban consumers actually heightens the risk of military intervention. Substantial popularity in rural areas serves as coup proof, thereby making a coup less likely to succeed. Using Afrobarometer data from Round 7, covering 34 African countries, I demonstrate a significant correlation between a regime's popularity in rural areas and decreased approval for military coups.