Paper short abstract:

This article examines the demise of the US proposal to re-establish a military base in Uzbekistan through the perspective of international and domestic factors. In addition, this work analyzes the counterfactual and repercussions on relations between Russia and Uzbekistan

Paper long abstract:

Doha Agreement was unable to bring about peace and end the protracted military conflict in Afghanistan. Moreover, experts had overlooked the importance of regional powers, apart from Pakistan, in fostering regional security and misinterpreted their interests and concerns. This paper focuses on the diplomatic efforts of the United States to re-establish a military base in Uzbekistan in the first nine months of the Biden administration, in the context of American withdrawal and collapsing security in Afghanistan. The brisk Taliban takeover may have crossed out the relevance of any such proposal, but it is vital to research the not-taken roads and examine factors that influenced that particular outcome. This work provides a historical overview of the previous short-lived experience of hosting a US base in the wake of the 2000s. It argues that domestic and international constraints contributed to the current proposal's demise for the military footprint. We identify several domestic variables that have contributed to that, such as the election of a new President of Uzbekistan in 2016, a different approach to the southern neighbor, and international factors, such as hostile bilateral relations between the United States and Russia. Lastly, this study aims to explore the counterfactual of the re-establishment of the US military base and the implications for bilateral relations between a Central Asian state and Russia.