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Accepted Papers:

A bioclimatic model of the population density in Russia and its applications to predictions  

Authors:

Elena Parfenova (Forest Institute of FRC KSC SB RAS)
Nadezhda Tchebakova (Forest Institute)

Paper Short Abstract:

The goals of this study were to quantify the dependence of the population density on climatic factors over a territory. To identify tendencies of the population density redistribution in a warming climate by the end of the current century we applied the sharp climate change scenario RCP 8.5

Paper long abstract:

The goals of this study were to quantify the dependence of the population density on climatic factors over a territory. A paired GIS-analysis of the population density layer (a dependent variable) on climatic layers of warmth and water resources (independent variables) and climate severity over a territory was carried out. A significant linear regression was obtained that explained 32% the population density variation by climatic factors.

To identify tendencies of the population density redistribution in a warming climate by the end of the current century we applied the obtained regression to the sharp climate change scenario RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). Over most Russia, the potential population density would increase on averageŠ± would remain low in permafrost regions and would decrease in fragments at the southern border by the end of the century.

However, sources of the population increase in the Russian Federation remain controversial. Using their regularities, demographes predict the population size to decrease down to 90-120 mln people by the middle of the current century and see the way to replenish labor resources in the replacement migration.

It seems to us that an alternative to the replacement migration involving Russia in "nescience economy" may serve automation and robotization declared by Industry-4.0.

panel C05
Linking Disasters and Climate Change