Paper short abstract:

What explains the post-conflict durability of systems of governance introduced by armed movements? This paper develops a theoretical framework that explains patterns of post-conflict continuity and change in governance. Empirically, it draws on the case of the Forces Nouvelles in Côte d’Ivoire.

Paper long abstract:

While there is now a growing literature highlighting and explaining cross-case variations in the systems of governance established by rebel movements amidst armed conflict (see Mampilly 2011; Arjona 2014), little is known about the persistence of these governing arrangements after the cessation of fighting. Systems of governance constructed by armed movements may become institutionalized and last well into the post-conflict period. Alternatively, they can be quickly dismantled amidst efforts at post-conflict reconstruction. What explains change or continuity? What causal factors account for different trajectories? In response to these questions, this paper develops a theoretical framework that explains variation in the post-conflict duration of rebel governance structures in communities formerly controlled by armed movements. To explain divergent post-war outcomes, our approach emphasizes variations in relationships between rebel leadership and elites within local communities established during the conflict period. This theory is illustrated using the case of Côte d'Ivoire, where the insurgent group Forces Nouvelles (FN) gained and retained administrative control over the northern half of the country between 2002 and 2011. After the end of the conflict, the insurgent administration has been officially dismantled, but in practice, there have been variations across former FN-controlled areas. In some areas, former FN military leaders have lost power to agents of the post-conflict state or other types of elites (traditional leaders, etc.). In other areas however, former FN elements have remained influential: they hold public offices, control illicit armed networks and remain involved in local economic activities. (this paper was developed in co-operation with Giulia Piccolino)