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Paper short abstract:

We argue that urbanization should be understood as a geodemographic phenomenon and present a range of plausible estimates for levels of urbanization across Africa based on these criteria. We find that most current classifications likely underestimate the size and extent of African urbanization.

Paper long abstract:

How urban is Africa? The answer has very concrete implications for policy framing and resource allocation, yet it remains unresolved. The answer depends upon how human settlements are classified, which in turn hinges on the extent to which urbanization and economic development are considered inextricably related. We argue that it is both conceptually and empirically problematic to consider urbanization as a by-product or indicator of economic development. Instead, urbanization should be understood as a geodemographic phenomenon in its own right with important but complex associations with economic development. We present a range of plausible estimates for levels of urbanization across African countries based solely on geodemographic classification criteria. Using the UN's Degree of Urbanisation (DEGURBA) as a benchmark, we test the sensitivity of urban population and settlement counts to different population datasets and urban density thresholds. By calculating national urban shares and urban area counts, our analysis highlights uncertainties in existing estimates of African urbanisation. We find that most classifications are likely to underestimate the size and extent of Africa's urban populations, highlighting the widespread phenomenon of ‘low-density urbanization’ across the continent. While this remains highly sensitive to methodological decisions, we conclude that more African's are living in urban areas than previously thought. Geodemographic change will continue to have profound impacts upon urban development and governance in Africa and, as such, warrants sustained attention and policy engagement.