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Paper short abstract:

Drawing on individual interviews and focus group discussions, this paper analyses the dynamics of Al-Shabaab in Northern Mozambique. It argues that the spread of the insurgency benefited from contextual and institutional factors, linked to local dynamics and trans-national connexions.

Paper long abstract:

In October 2017, Mozambique entered a new cycle of armed violence moved by a jihadist group locally known as Al-Shabaab. Starting with an attack on state institutions and local populations in Mocímboa da Praia, the armed violence quickly spread to other districts of Cabo Delgado, and few years later to neighbouring provinces of Nampula and Niassa. The state response to the insurgency has prioritised the military dimension. However, from 2017 – 2021, the jihadist group intensified its military actions beyond villages, capturing small towns, resulting in a massive internal displacement of local populations. What factors explain the spread of Al-Shabaab in Northern Mozambique? How and why was the insurgency able to go beyond Mocímboa da Praia? Drawing on individual interviews and focus group discussions conducted during various stints of fieldwork in Cabo Delgado, Nampula and Niassa from 2020 – 2022, this paper analyses the expansion of military actions of Al-Shabbab beyond Mocímboa da Praia. It investigates explanatory factors of such an expansion and argues that the spread of the insurgency in Northern Mozambique benefited from contextual and institutional factors. The contextual factors relate, on the one hand, to precarious relations between state and citizens made visible by weak policies in different sectors, which leverage recruitment to the ranks of Al-Shabaab, and on the other hand, to the regional dynamics of jihadist movements in Central and Eastern Africa. The institutional factors are linked to how public institutions work and shape the outcomes of state response to the insurgency.