Paper short abstract:

This paper examines the role of conflict narratives in the underutilization of Conflict Early Warning Mechanisms (CEWRMs) in Africa and the choice of conflict resolution tools for specific conflicts.

Paper long abstract:

This paper qualitatively compares peace and conflict assessments of major conflict and development datasets with the different ways conflict early warning mechanisms (CEWRMs) of the African Union and its RECs conceptualize conflict and structure their CEWRM offices. It finds that, more than these datasets' assessment of the 'empirical' peace and conflict situation in their region, the conceptualization of conflict and institutional design of CEWRMs are also a reflection of the political, normative, and practical considerations of the regional organization. Moreover, conflict narratives, formed from data gathered about the context, political dimensions, and practical considerations by specific actors with their unique positionalities and motivations, influence the decision to intervene and how and whether early warning findings translate into policy in the first place.

As an illustrative case study, the paper examines the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. It explains how the design of its Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) measures indicators that are distant to the major conflicts in the region, particularly the brewing conflict in South Sudan in 2013. This paper then analyzes the differing and even conflicting narratives about the conflict that started the violent killings in South Sudan on 15 December 2013. It finds that different actors' positionality and interests motivated them to advocate for different interpretations of data on the conflict and the corresponding solutions. The paper further focuses on the role of the IGAD mediators and how their own positionalities influenced how they engaged with these varying conflict definitions in performing their mediator roles.