Paper short abstract:

What's the best way to view visions of the future from the past? Are development plans merely a form of ‘future making’ for which ‘the present is by definition insufficient’ while the futures proposed are endlessly deferred? Is the notion of 'past futures' a useful methodological approach?

Paper long abstract:

If visions of the future can be discerned from the present, how might they be viewed in the past? These ‘past futures’ may also be evaluated for their potential in terms of possibility, probability, and preferability—except the key point, of course, is that their outcomes are largely known with the passage of time. This is most apparent when a particular vision is expected to materialise within a set period of time, such as through innumerable ‘X-Year Plans’ for economic and social development. As a form of ‘future making’ these—to borrow from art critic John Berger—are a form of publicity for which ‘the present is by definition insufficient’ and its rhetoric ‘speaks in the future tense and yet the achievement of this future is endlessly deferred.’ How, then, might historians write histories of development framed by ‘futures’ thinking? As Ged Martin has noted, ‘the inconvenient problem that the future is unknowable does not excuse historians from exploring the influence of perceived or imagined past futures upon the shaping of the decisions that constitute the building blocks of history.’ But to what extent is this a useful approach? What are the challenges and limitations? What, too, are the opportunities and potential for this new lens through which to view the past? This paper seeks to develop a discussion on these themes and reflect on the methodological, conceptual, and practical applications of viewing ‘development’ as a ‘future making’ practice.