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Paper short abstract:

Supported by former President Kikwete (2005-2015), the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) was discontinued by his successor Magufuli (2015-2021). Although the end of SAGCOT could have meant the end of land grabbing in the Kilombero Valley, new evictions are already underway.

Paper long abstract:

The access to and ownership of land is the central land question of Tanzania in the 21st century (Maghimbi et al. 2011). As the population grows, the availability of land per capita reduces. This dynamic pressures central governments to find answers for an agrarian society that, thus far, is structured in smallholder schemes. President Kikwete (2005-2015) envisioned the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT). It suggested a third of the country to be ready for large-scale agro-investments. After many scholars cautioned on potential land-grabbing cases (Sulle 2020), his successor, President Magufuli (2015-2021), discontinued SAGCOT and instead sought to transit the national economy from agriculture to industrialization through new mega-infrastructures.

Qualitative empirical research in the Kilombero Valley, Morogoro Region, in 2018/19 shows that both state visions had multiple effects on the Tanzanian land question. Both envision the transformation of the agrarian sector, but neither includes rural residents in decision-making. The construction of the mega-dam Stiegler's Gorge in the Selous has led to more tenure insecurity, landlessness and evictions in the Kilombero Valley, that is located about 100 kilometers upstream. Through newly set beacons (which mark the border between protected land and village land) many thousand peasants, smallholder farmers and (agro)pastoralists have (partially) lost their access to land. Under Magufuli, the politicization of land and water increased further, as the national developement interests (electricity production) rivals local interests (rural livelihoods). In a Gramscian Political Ecology sense, I conceptualize both the SAGCOT and the Stiegler's Gorge as 'hegemonic future grabbing'.