Paper short abstract:

This paper examines the ‘middle class’ theory of democratization in light of modern Ethiopian political history, and finds both the concept of a unified ‘middle class’ and the theory wanting.

Paper long abstract:

A popular strand of thought has it that the prevalence of a large middle class is crucial to the emergence and consolidation of democratic rule, functioning as a bulwark against authoritarianism and extremism. Looking at the modern history of Ethiopia, it is here argued that such a characterisation of a 'middle class' as a unified democratic and progressive force is highly problematic. Since the mass protests that initiated the Ethiopian revolution of 1974, the middle classes have in each major political struggle been split between a conservative propertied upper stratum and a radical propertyless lower stratum centred around the intelligentsia. The upper stratum has consistently rallied behind status quoist forces be they represented by the Imperial, the Dergist or the current Federal states, while the lower stratum has provided leadership to each major challenger to those states, be they the student movement, the EPRP, the once rebel EPRDF and the electoral fronts that emerged around the 2005 elections. In this paper, it is argued that it would be premature to assume that the emergence of a larger 'middle class' would automatically lead to the democratization of Ethiopian state and society. On the contrary, it is argued that the precondition for democratization is the emergence of hegemonic rule, which would require a degree of accommodation of the lower classes and the marginalised nationalities. As long as the Ethiopian state fails to enjoy ideological hegemony over large swaths of its population, it is difficult to imagine the upper stratums supporting the gamble that far-going democratization would entail, threatening its precarious position.