Paper short abstract:

This paper introduces a framework to assess how external pressure affects the (discursive) opportunity structures which domestic opposition movements in Sub-Saharan Africa face and analyzes under which configurations of conditions they are enabled or constrained by international sanctions.

Paper long abstract:

International sanctions affect the environment in which domestic opposition movements act and argue. Theoretical explanations have been advanced for the occurrence of a rally around the flag effect and the contrary, an internal opposition effect. Moreover, empirical insights remain inconclusive, showing that opposition movements can be harmed by or benefit from sanctions in multiple ways. In order to address this puzzle, one needs to go beyond analyzing the socio-economic impact of sanctions and take their signaling dimension seriously. This paper suggests a theoretical framework for studying the impact of international sanctions on domestic opposition movements. In doing so, it integrates findings from the research on social movements and international sanctions, which have not yet systematically been related to each other.

Sanctions affect both the political and the discursive opportunity structure that opposition movements encounter. In addition to influencing factors prominently discussed in the research on social movements such as the state capacity for repression, the openness of political institutions as well as the availability of resources, signals sent by sanctions also have an effect on how opposition movements frame their claims. This paper conducts a fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) of 49 sanction episodes in Sub-Saharan Africa to examine the interplay between these conditions. I find that not only the extent of political openness, but also the linkage between the sender of sanctions and its target, the goals of sanctions as well as the regimes' legitimation strategies, which in turn influence the movements' claims making, play a role.