Paper short abstract:

The paper attempts to judge the effects of the withdrawal of foreign aid on Rwanda’s already delicate 'elite bargain'. It specifically analyzes the effects it may have on the sources of President Kagame’s stability: economic development, perceived neoliberal ideology and management of the elite.

Paper long abstract:

Last year, donors finally withdrew foreign aid from Rwanda, hoping to push President Kagame to dissolve the country's alleged relationship to the M23 rebel group. Sanctioning a country that has been lauded for its aid effectiveness and impressive performance in several governance indicators was an interesting move. But what effect does it have? This paper attempts to provide an understanding of how the withdrawal of foreign aid will affect Rwanda's 'delicate' elite bargain - a concept that most agree is key to understanding the conflict, but has not received enough detailed exploration.

President Paul Kagame derives his legitimacy and the stability of his own position through three sources: the people (through a commitment to economic development); the international community (through a perceived engagement with the Neoliberal Development Ideology); his own elite (through his elite bargain). In my view, any threat to Kagame's position can only arrive from the third source - his own elite. The other two sources could influence the elite to react but an eventual insurrection has most often been mounted by someone who was once a 'co-conspirator', as Verhoeven and Roessler (2012) find. Since a 'co-conspirator rupture' (Verhoeven and Roessler 2012) became evident, Kagame's elite bargain has become increasingly delicate. With the withdrawal of aid and a disaffected international community, all three sources of his stability are now threatened. As a result, his next moves in the Congo will have to balance between satisfying a disaffected elite, appeasing the international community and pushing forward with VISION 2020.