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Paper short abstract

Our empirical study examines anticipatory governance for quantum computers by demonstrating how diverse stakeholders imagine quantum-resilient futures and contest (or fail to contest) their distributed responsibilities in the transition to quantum-resilient systems.

Paper long abstract

This work explores how the arrival of quantum computers challenges the resilience of our societies. As future quantum computers pose an urgent threat to global cybersecurity, a transition to quantum-safe systems is essential in order to remain resilient against quantum attacks. Such transition demands coordinated action across a complex system of stakeholders, revealing broader societal, organisational and institutional challenges in developing resilience. This empirical research investigates the Netherlands as a case study in how nations are anticipating and responding to the quantum threat.

Drawing on a participatory mapping workshop held with industry, government and academic experts, we examine the relevant actors, roles and responsibilities in the response to the quantum threat. Our analysis reveals that diverse stakeholders co-construct the quantum-resilient society and identifies highly distributed, interconnected transition responsibilities, several with unclear ownership. We examine the conditions of uncertainty in which organisations must plan their transition, develop two imagined quantum-resilient futures which emerged from the workshop and reflect on their implications for anticipatory governance for the impact of quantum computers. 

Framing this transition as a societal challenge, we show how agency, expertise, and institutional coordination collectively shape societal readiness for the quantum threat, allowing us to examine why the current carrots (incentives) and sticks (penalties) are insufficient to prompt widespread transition. We assign the unclaimed responsibilities by advancing recommendations for several transition actors and conclude that, without a solid governance foundation, carrots will remain irrelevant, sticks will remain absent, and the quantum-resilient future will never arrive.